Europe Reaffirms Its Crown as the World's Coffee Capital — And Ethiopia Is Powering the Next Chapter

A new economic study confirms what anyone walking through a European city already senses: the continent's love affair with coffee shows no sign of slowing. According to "The Economic Impact of Coffee in Europe," a report by London-based consultancy Europe Economics for the European Coffee Federation (ECF), the EU27 was the single largest coffee-consumption market on Earth in 2025/26, drinking around 41.9 million 60kg bags — roughly 24% of all coffee consumed worldwide, ahead of the United States and Brazil. Add in the UK, Norway and Switzerland (the "EU+" region) and Europe's share of global consumption climbs higher still.

The findings were presented at a roundtable during World of Coffee Brussels in late June, and they paint a picture of an industry that is far bigger — and far more interdependent with producing countries — than most consumers realize.

A €191.5 Billion Engine

Because Europe grows almost no coffee of its own, nearly all of this market depends on imports — and on what Europe does with those beans afterward. The numbers are striking. Coffee directly supports:

• €191.5 billion in output and €84.4 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA) across the EU27

• Around 1.5 million direct full-time-equivalent jobs, with the large majority in cafés, restaurants, hotels, workplaces and vending

• Once supplier industries (indirect effects) and wage-spending (induced effects) are added in, the sector's full footprint rises to €494.3 billion of output, €217 billion of GVA, and 3.8 million jobs — comparable to total employment in a mid-sized EU economy like Denmark

• For every €1 of direct coffee output, the report estimates around €2.60 is generated across the wider economy once those ripple effects are included

Across the larger EU+ footprint, the direct figures rise to €221.6 billion in output and €98.8 billion in GVA, with the total footprint (including indirect and induced effects) reaching €582.8 billion in output and 4.7 million jobs. To keep the sector supplied, the EU imported 2.9 million tonnes of green and roasted coffee from outside the bloc in 2025, worth €17 billion in green coffee alone (€18.7 billion including all coffee product imports). Germany remains the single largest entry point, handling roughly a third of EU imports largely through the Port of Hamburg, much of it destined for re-export across the single market — followed by Italy (Trieste and Genoa) and Belgium, whose Port of Antwerp is one of the largest coffee storage hubs in the world.

Where the Beans Come From

Brazil (34.2% of import volume) and Vietnam (20%) remain the EU's two largest suppliers, together accounting for more than half of all imports. Uganda, Colombia, Honduras, Ethiopia, India and Indonesia round out the top eight origins, together supplying around 85% of the bloc's coffee. But the report's most important message isn't about volume — it's about dependence, and it runs in both directions.

For several origin countries, the European market isn't just a buyer; it's the buyer. The study calculates that the EU+ absorbs around 91% of Burundi's coffee exports and 56% of Uganda's, despite each representing a tiny share of total EU import volumes. Ethiopia sits in a similar position: while it supplies about 4.5% of the EU's coffee import volume, the EU+ market takes 34% of everything Ethiopia exports as coffee — and EU+ coffee purchases alone are equivalent to nearly 12% of Ethiopia's total goods exports of any kind. Coffee itself makes up almost 35% of Ethiopia's total export revenue, underlining just how central the European relationship is to the country's foreign-exchange earnings.

The report's authors frame this plainly: coffee isn't simply an agricultural commodity or a daily ritual — it is a shared value chain linking farming households in producing countries directly to businesses, workers and consumers across Europe, and one where Europe's standards (most notably the EU Deforestation Regulation) increasingly shape how coffee is grown, traced and documented at origin.

Ethiopia's Side of the Story: A Sector Modernizing at Speed

While European demand holds steady, Ethiopia — coffee's birthplace and Africa's largest producer — is undergoing one of the most ambitious production pushes in its modern history, and the timing could not be better for a market hungry for supply.

According to the most recent USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Coffee Annual report and the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA), Ethiopia's coffee production for the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast to reach 12.1 million 60kg bags, a 4.7% increase on the previous season and a new national record. Exports are projected at 7.13 million bags, with domestic consumption — fueled by urban café culture and a younger generation of drinkers — expected to climb past 5 million bags.

Several converging initiatives explain the momentum:

A 15-year national strategy. ECTA is implementing a long-range Comprehensive Coffee Development Strategy aiming to position Ethiopia as the world's second-largest coffee producer and exporter, with parallel goals of multiplying farmer incomes and creating millions of new jobs across the value chain. The strategy was developed with the Ethiopian Institute of Agriculture Research and international partner TechnoServe.

Rejuvenating aging trees. Close to 70% of Ethiopia's coffee trees are old and under-productive. A national stumping campaign — cutting back aging trees to stimulate vigorous new growth — is showing measurable results, with studies and field partners reporting yields two to three times higher within three years of treatment.

A new generation of varieties. The Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute has distributed more than 50 improved, higher-yielding, disease-resistant coffee varieties to farmers, part of a broader push to expand nurseries and improve seedling access nationwide.

Mechanized, large-scale plantations. In a notable departure from Ethiopia's smallholder-dominated model — in which roughly 5.9 million farming households still produce about 90% of national output on plots often under half a hectare — the government has begun allocating commercial farmland to private investors in Oromia and the Southwest, with plans for mechanized land preparation, smart irrigation and Brazil-style commercial-scale plantations.

Shortening the value chain. Policy reforms now allow farmers with two hectares or more to export directly, and the share of farmers with direct market access has reportedly doubled over five years, from 40% to 80% — letting growers capture more of the export value that used to go to intermediaries.

Traceability and compliance. With the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requiring geolocation and supply-chain documentation for all coffee entering the bloc, ECTA is building a national traceability system and tightening financial requirements for exporters — a development directly relevant to any platform connecting Ethiopian suppliers with EU buyers.

Why This Matters for the EU–Ethiopia Coffee Relationship

Put the two reports side by side and a clear story emerges. Europe's coffee demand is not just resilient — it is structurally enormous, built into café culture, retail habits and a workforce of millions, with import needs that producing nations have a direct stake in meeting. At the same time, Ethiopia is investing seriously in production capacity, quality infrastructure and the traceability standards that EU regulation now demands.

For buyers and roasters sourcing through platforms like ours, that combination is good news on both ends of the supply chain: steady, large-scale European demand on one side, and a modernizing, increasingly traceable Ethiopian supply base on the other — one capable of meeting both volume growth and the EUDR-compliant documentation European importers now require.

Europe didn't just hold onto its title as the world's coffee leader. It is, in effect, co-authoring the next chapter of Ethiopian coffee's growth story.

Sources: European Coffee Federation (ECF) / Europe Economics, "The Economic Impact of Coffee in Europe" (June 2026); USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Ethiopia Coffee Annual (GAIN Report, May 2026); Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA); TechnoServe.